Summary: Questions the idea of cancelling a data request when a seemingly more apparent answer becomes known. **
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At Chicago bus stops, a sign gives a code for sending a text and receiving the predicted arrival time. Such trackers are becoming common in cities, for both bus and train ETA, and can be delivered via web, apps, and SMS. This morning I arrived at a stop and entered the code but before I clicked send, the bus became visible about one-half of a mile away. My instinct was to put aside the phone, because the ‘answer’ was right before me… I thought about it, and decided this was short-sighted. I should have completed the data request and gotten the ETA from the authority. Why?

There are many variables that determine the speed of a bus, and a highly influential –and dynamic — component is the quantity of stops. (Anything can happen at a stop.. or nothing at all). Even though the bus was visible, it was still more than 2 stops away, which made it susceptible to further delays. In an opposing situation, the distance (to a newcomer) might seem to include multiple stops, but might be an ‘express’ or be entering a stretch of no stops.

The data provider (the ‘authority’) likely has a long history of each bus line to generate its algorithmic prediction. It is worthwhile to collect this wisdom while we wait as an ADDITIONAL source of data. We can of course still LOOK at the approaching bus. What about the COST of sending and receiving a text? It might be as much as $.20 for those who lack a high-quantity text plan. In that case, one would have to determine the value of receiving the authority’s prediction. It would likely be more valuable to keep the twenty cents, especially since the authority is often inaccurate… HA HA… but the inaccuracy is still of value! It is still data that YOU, as your own ultimate authority, can use, going forward. Example:

Authority predicts 2 minutes; Actual wait was 5 minutes… this provides guidance. It would take a lot of data to generate your own rule set, and you would likely be ruined by a dependence on a simple conclusion such as “authority always underestimates by 3 minutes.” More preferable, would be for the authority itself to constantly be given corrections for each of its predictions. That’s the Google method, but the catch is the eventual Big Brother apparatus.

But for you to collect as much data as you can – by having as much knowledge and experience as possible– you would at least know that that is that and this is this… and isn’t that what life is about?

On the other hand, by busying yourself with texting, you may have missed a smile.